3 Reasons to Buy that House NOW!

Here are three great reasons to consider buying a home today instead of waiting.

1.) Prices Will Continue to Rise

The Home Price Expectation Survey polls a distinguished panel of over 100 economists, investment strategists, and housing market analysts. Their most recent report released last week projects appreciation in home values over the next five years to be between 12.3% (most pessimistic) and 32.8% (most optimistic).

The bottom in home prices has come and gone. Home values will continue to appreciate for years. Waiting no longer makes any sense.

2.) Mortgage Interest Rates Are Increasing

As reported by Freddie Mac, interest rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages have risen about one full percentage point over recent historic lows.

The National Association of Realtors, the Mortgage Bankers Association, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, in their July forecasts, have all projected 30-year-fixed mortgage interest rates to be between 4.8 and 5.1% by this time next year.

An increase in rates will impact YOUR monthly mortgage payment. Whether you are moving up or moving down, your housing expense will be more a year from now if a mortgage is necessary to purchase your next home.

3.) It’s Time to Move On with Your Life

The ‘cost’ of a home is determined by two major components: the price of the home and the current mortgage rate. It appears that both are on the rise. But, what if they weren’t? Would you wait?

Look at the actual reason you are buying and decide whether it is worth waiting. Whether you want to have a great place for your children to grow up, you want your family to be safer or you just want to have control over renovations, maybe it is time to buy.

If the right thing for you and your family is to purchase a home this year, buying sooner rather than later could lead to substantial savings.

If you are thinking of buying or selling in the Wilmington, Carolina Beach, Kure Beach or Wrightsville Beach area, please give me a call at (910) 617-7654 or send me an email to joyce@intracoastalrealty.com and I will be glad to help you get the process started.  Even if you are just wondering what your home may be worth, call me for a free market analysis.

Joyce M Barnwell
Intracoastal Realty Corporation
www.joycebarnwell.com
joyce@intracoastalrealty.com
910 617-7654 Cell
888 209-3876 Fax

13,918 Houses Sold Yesterday!

 

There are many naysayers declaring that the housing market is still challenged. Young adults are burdened with too much student debt. Interest rate increases are killing demand. Homeownership is no longer seen as part of the American Dream.  

I just want to let these naysayers know three things:  13,918 houses sold yesterday, 13,918 will sell today and 13,918 will sell tomorrow. 13,918!

That is the average number of homes that sell each and every day in this country according to the National Association of Realtors’ (NAR) latest Existing Home Sales Report. NAR reported that sales had increased 15.2% over the year before. According to the report, annualized sales now stand at 5.08 million. Divide that number by 365 (days in a year) and we can see that, on average, almost 14,000 homes sell every day

.

I realize that these numbers are below the record for homes sold in 2006. I also know that we may not see those numbers again for a long time (and that is probably a good thing). But to say that the current real estate market is challenged is totally inaccurate. We have about 14,000 pieces of evidence to prove that.

If you would like to be a part of that 13,918 bought and sold each day, please give me a call at (910) 617-7654 or email me at joyce@intracoastalrealty.com to see how I can help you buy or sell a home.  I work in the New Hanover County area of North Carolina including Wilmington, Carolina Beach, Kure Beach and Wrightsville Beach.  Let me know how I can help you.

Joyce Barnwell

Buying A Home? If You Can, Buy Two

John Paulson gave the keynote lunchtime address at the CNBC/Institutional Investor conference recently. He believes that housing will continue its strong recovery for the next 4 to 7 years saying:

“The housing market has bottomed. It’s not too late to get involved. I still think buying a home is the best investment any individual can make. Affordability is still at an all-time high.”

When asked how the average person can take advantage of the current real estate market, Paulson said:

“Buy a home and, if you can, buy a second home.”

Should we care what Mr. Paulson thinks? Should we listen to him? The answer to both questions is a resounding ‘YES’. Here is why.

Who is John Paulson?

Paulson is the person who made a fortune back in 2007 betting that the subprime mortgage mess would cause the real estate market to collapse. He understands how the housing market works and knows when to buy and when to sell.

If we are to trust anyone’s advice, it should be Mr. Paulson’s.

Each month, David Flory, Mortgage Consultant with Cunningham & Co Mortgage Bankers does an excellent report on the New Hanover County real estate market.  Many people are not into the detail that David goes into, however there are those of us that like detail.  It is for them that I add this report to my blog.  If you'd like more details, please send me an email to joyce@intracoastalrealty.com or give me a call at (910) 617-7654.

Thank you David for an excellent report!

May 2013 MLS Report

“Who let the dogs out? Who, who, who, who – Who let the dogs out? Who, who, who, who” – now imagine sitting in a football stadium with 75,000 fellow Realtors and the announcers give you the results of last month’s sales figures. These are numbers to celebrate and be proud of.

Highest monthly average sales price since May of 2009 - $248,726

Highest monthly median price since May of 2009 - $190,000

Highest number of monthly sold homes since August of 2007 – 635 homes

Highest pending activity since August of 2007 – 1,364 homes

With such a great month let’s look at how it all breaks down. We are in our 8^th month with our list to sales price above 95%. The average sold price for May exceeded last month by 10.1% and last year by 16.6%. Our listing inventory only grew by 3 units from last month, while the average list price increased by $12,661. Our pending index is at 1,364 units as of 6/10/13, the highest it has been since August of 2007. In May sellers paid concessions in about 29.6% of the transactions, the average concession amount is $3,400. Our average days on the market decreased to 133 days. The number of homes that sold in 15 days or less continues to remain very low, 11.8% of May sold homes.

Mortgage rates have decided it is time to start rising again, the biggest increase we have seen in a couple of years. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 3.91% with an average 0.7 points for the week ending June 6, 2013; we have stayed under 4.0% for over 1 year. With smaller inventories, sellers getting 95% of their asking price, shorter number of days that homes are on the market we have seen a very good spring. You can see in the Mortgage rates chart that rates were at 3.40% to 3.41% toward the end of April and now we are .50% higher. Are we headed into a Seller’s market? The number of sold homes for May vs. the current inventory takes us below the magic 6 month supply to 5.9 months, however most of our peak months take place between May thru July. It seems that most of our comparisons go back to 2007. If you were considering buying a home now is the time as our basic factors continue to improve, this just further enhances the opportunities for buyers – great property deals as well as very attractive mortgage rates, now if ever there was a great time to buy we can say it is now. Call me so I can show you or your clients how they can get the benefit of these rates. Have a great week and let me know what I can do to help you and your clients.

Despite all the media comments about our markets we are still lending money for residential mortgages. If a client has income and credit and some sort of down payment; they can get a mortgage. It goes to the basic three C’s – Capacity, Collateral and Character.

Listing Inventory

We saw a 3 unit increase in our listing inventory for May over the month of April. We are about 297 units under June 1, 2012, down about 7.3% from last year. A year ago our average list price was $365,988 this year we are up by 3.4. We currently have 3,768 single family homes for sale in our MLS as of June 1^st. The average list price of $379,797 is up by $12,661 from last month. January was the low point of our listing inventory and we are now in the building stage of our listings. Typically we are done with our major growth in listing inventory; a low inventory will make it difficult to find that “perfect home” for your buyer.

 

Monthly Average Sold Price

May average sold price ($248,726) shows an increase of 10.1% from last month ($213,393) and up by 16.6% from May 2012 ($213,393). Our monthly average sold price is up $22,730 from last month and up $35,333 from May 2012. May average sold price is up 13.0% from our yearend (2012) sales price of $220,158.  

Monthly Sold Units

We are up 90 sold units from April 2013 and up 104 units from May 2012. This May we are up 16.5% in units sold compared to April 2013. This is our best May in sold units in over 6 years. Our May sold units have ranged from a low of 375 in 2009 and we had 654 units in May 2007. We continue our positive trend of upward sales. In just a quick analysis we had 49 homes that sold for more than $500,000, while last month that number was 29 homes, in March it was 32 homes and in Feb it was 22 homes. This helped our average sales price increase.

Average Sold Price Year to Date

Year over year our year to date numbers have dipped a little.

2003 year end average sale price $ 186,137

2004 year end average sale price $ 210,048

2005 year end average sale price $ 254,080

2006 year end average sale price $ 264,498

2007 year end average sale price $ 273,408

2008 year end average sale price $256,510

2009 year end average sale price $235,116

2010 year end average sale price $230,459

2011 year end average sale price $221,848

2012 year end average sale price $220,158

Our current Year to Date average sold price - $228,296 about 13.0% up from Year End 2012.

Median Sold Price

Our Median sold price increased this month by 7.3% from last month. Our national numbers lag by one month. Our median sales price continues its jagged path. The slight decrease in our median sold price in March moves us back up based on the National Median. On a National scale the economy is trying to improve. Ours should continue to improve as we go into the summer. The last 3 months we have cycled with the National Median we just seem to be a month behind the national numbers.

Pending

Pending Sales – A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not yet closed. Sales are typically finalized within one to two months from signing. I am counting Active Due Diligence and pending contracts in my total pending sales. I look at the total pending units on a regular basis and this is how they chart out. Our pending index was very consistent in 2012 with the pending index staying above 1,000 units for about 8 months. 2013 has already started strong with our pending index above 1,000 units since Feb 1^st 2013. We crossed over the 1,200 current pending units on April 11^th. We crossed over the 1,300 pending units on May 23^rd. The last time we were over 1,300 pending units was 8/7/2007. From the agents and managers I have talked with we are seeing an increase in showings and contracts, and pending contracts proves this to be accurate. Good job

Market Absorption rate – The number of homes sold in May, 635 divided by the current listing inventory, 3,768 gives us a 5.9 month supply of single family homes. This is a decrease of 1.1 months from last month. I anticipate we have a chance to see this get lower this summer. With rates where they are and plenty of inventory; we can get this number down even more. We are hearing from agents about more multiple offers as the inventory shrinks.

List to Sold price ratio – the average list price of the sold properties is $259,299 and the average sold price is $248,726 for May, which gives us a 95.9% list to sold price ratio – this is the eighth month we are above the magic 95% list to sales ratio – Great Job.

Seller Concessions – We had 29.6% of sold properties report a sales concession for May, a decrease of 2.5% from last month. We want this number to go lower. The average concession was $3,400

Days on Market – The average days on market for the sold properties are now at 133 for May a 3 day decrease from last month. Only 11.8% of the properties were placed under contract in less than 15 days for the month of May.

Rolling 12 months

Our rolling 12 months gives us a better look at our production. It helps to smooth out a month that jumps up and down. This is the third month our rolling numbers are ahead of last year in both units and sold price. When we look at June 1^st, 2012 to May 31, 2013 we have 6,029 sold units and when we compare the year prior June 1^st, 2011 to May 31, 2012 we have a 1,141 unit gain (4,888 sold units). When we look at the same rolling 12 months for average sold price we see that we are up by 2.5%. So the dates of 6/1/2012 to 5/31/2013 we have an average sold price of $225,787 while from 6/1/2011 to 5/31/2012 we had an average sold price $220,316.

Carolina & Kure Beach

There are currently 334 single family homes for sale and this represents a change of 8 units from May 1, 2013 and it represents about 8.9% of our total WRAR inventory. The average list price is $387,107 and an increase of about $560 from May 1, 2013. In May there were 39 homes sold, divide that by the homes available and you have an 8.5 month supply of homes in Carolina and Kure Beach. The average sold price for the month of May was $282,521 and is down by $15,214 from May 2012. Our year to date is behind the average sold price of $284,893 for 2012 and at $283,924 for 2013. The rolling 12 months for Carolina Beach average sold price is $282,720 vs. $277,495 the previous year. Good Job and it fits in with WRAR overall.

This data was pulled on June 10, 2013, based on information from the Wilmington Regional Association of REALTORS Incorporated, for the period Jan. 1, 2005 through May 31, 2013.

The Market

Mortgage Rates Continue Climbing Higher

Freddie Mac released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey®, showing fixed mortgage rates climbing higher for the fifth consecutive week on concerns the Federal Reserve may slow its bond purchases amid a strengthening economy. This marks the first time the average 15-year fixed-rate mortgage has gone above 3 percent since the week of May 24th of last year.

News Facts

• 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 3.91 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending June 6, 2013, up from last week when it averaged 3.81 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 3.67 percent.
• 15-year FRM this week averaged 3.03 percent with an average 0.7 point, up from last week when it averaged 2.98 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 2.94 percent.

Quotes
Attributed to Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist, Freddie Mac.

"Continuing market concerns that the Federal Reserve may slow its bond purchases amid a strengthening economy added upward pressure on mortgage rates this week. In its June 5th regional economic conditions report, known as the Beige Book, the Federal Reserve noted that overall economic activity increased at a modest to moderate pace over April and May in all its districts except for Dallas which indicated strong economic growth. In addition, pending home sales rose in April to its fastest pace since April 2010 and May's consumer sentiment was revised upwards to its highest reading since July 2007."

30 Year Fixed Rates

CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index

The CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indexes have been in the news with a lot of residential data. Just what does this index offer?

• Over 6,000 indexes covering states, counties, metros and ZIP codes across the U.S.
• 30 year home price forecasts for all indexes
• Custom Index set for Standard & Poor’s indices

CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indexes help securities investors, mortgage banks, servicing operations, and government agencies assess property valuations and manage risk, mitigate losses, and control appraisal quality. They include the CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indexes, Default Correction Factors, and Home Price Forecasts—which help:

• Track residential real estate trends
• Manage price risk within specific U.S. markets
• Value loan portfolio collateral
• Estimate default probabilities and loss severity within specific markets
• Determine firm capital sufficiency

You can go the site and get some real specific residential reports.

CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indexes. Click link above to view this info and other top markets.

Some comments from the Peanut Gallery:

In a dark and hazy room, peering into a crystal ball, the Mystic delivered grave news: “There’s no easy way to tell you this, so I’ll just be blunt. Prepare yourself to be a widow. Your husband will die a violent and horrible death this year.”

Visibly shaken, Laura stared at the woman’s lined face, then at the single flickering candle, then down at her hands. She took a few deep breaths to compose herself and to stop her mind racing. She simply had to know.

She met the Fortune Teller’s gaze, steadied her voice and asked, “And will I be acquitted?”

 

I offer these key statistics to keep you informed as to how our market is changing. With 25 years of real estate sales and management and finance in my background I am able to evaluate the current conditions and provide you with accurate data. With key information from your clients I can evaluate their needs and offer them the best plan for their current mortgage. With our current “Buyer Ready” program we can shorten the due diligence period and take the qualifying fear away from the client. Call me today for a worksheet.

Cunningham & Company is a full service Mortgage Banker - we handle everything in house. We do first time buyers, USDA, FHA and VA loans, Conventional and Jumbo Loans, 100% financing and we have a large selection of adjustable rate loans. Call me today with my background in real estate and the resources of Cunningham & Company working together... you can't miss. A loan in the crowd.

·         "Who Let the Dogs Out?" is a "song" written and originally recorded by Anslem Douglas (titled "Doggie") for the Trinidad and Tobago Carnival season of 1998.

 

 

David Flory NMLS #91592

 

Mortgage Consultant

Cunningham & Company Mortgage Bankers

910-352-8273 cell

910-313-0045 office

Selling a House: What Does It Take?

The most important need of anyone attempting to sell their house is – TO GET IT SOLD! It is imperative that you, the agent, are very direct in what it takes to get a house sold. Here is a checklist we put together.

ACCESS

A seller should be willing to give almost unlimited access to potential purchasers if they are looking to sell. Any restrictions to showing the home will result in fewer buyers which could result in a lower price, a longer time on market or both.

CONDITION

Condition goes a long way in determining whether or not a house sells. Bringing in a professional stager is the ultimate answer. If that is not possible, the seller should at least be willing to remove all the clutter and ‘throw on’ a fresh coat of paint where necessary.

MORTGAGE OPTIONS

Very few owners are willing to give a first mortgage to a potential buyer. However, there are other mortgage options they perhaps should consider. Allowing FHA financing is an example. Perhaps, they would be willing to help the buyer out with a seller’s concession. The easier it is for a purchaser to finance the home, the greater the chance more buyers will be interested.

PRICE

Every house must be sold twice: to the buyer and to the bank if a mortgage is involved. To get a home sold the price has to be right. There are studies that have shown that listing a house at a price greater than the market warrants results in that home taking a longer time to sell and also selling for less money.

For more information on listing and selling your home, please either give me a call at (910) 617-7654, send me an email at joyce@intracoastalrealty.com or visit my website at www.joycebarnwell.com.  I've been listing and selling real estate in the Carolina/Kure Beach, Wrightsville Beach and Wilmington, NC area for over 9 years.

Selling A House? Don't Overprice It.

 

There is no doubt that the housing market is coming back nicely. What, if anything, could slow down the current momentum? We believe it may be sellers’ over exuberance when it comes to pricing. There is little doubt that house prices have appreciated over the last twelve months in most regions of the country. However, with both the inventory of homes for sale and interest rates increasing, we have to be careful to not over judge what the market can bare.

Trulia just reported that asking prices have jumped dramatically and the increase is accelerating:

§ Year-Over-Year prices jumped 10.7%

§ Quarter-Over-Quarter prices jumped 4.1% (16.4% annualized)

§ Month-Over-Month prices jumped 1.5% (18% annualized)

No expert is expecting home prices to shoot up 18% in the next twelve months. If anything, price appreciation may slow as rates and inventories increase. Investors will begin to slow their purchases and the first-time buyers expected to take their place will be working within a pre-set budget in many cases.

Buyers’ Purchasing Power

Let’s look at an example: A young couple is looking for a home and have predetermined that their budget will only allow them to spend $1,000 a month on a mortgage. At today’s mortgage rate of 4.5%, they could afford a $200,000 mortgage ($1,013 principal & interest). However, if rates jump to 5%, they would have to lower their mortgage amount to $190,000 in order to keep their monthly payment where they need it ($1,020). At 5.5%, the mortgage would need to be no more than $180,000 ($1,022).

The Impact on Prices

This decrease in buyers’ purchasing power will have an impact on home values going forward. We do not believe it will cause a decrease in prices. However, we do believe it will likely cause current rates of appreciation to slow.

If you are thinking about selling your home, don’t get carried away with current headlines about home price increases that have taken place over the last twelve months. Instead, call a local real estate professional. They will be best prepared to explain where prices are headed over the next six months.

If you have any questions about the worth of your home or property, please give me a call toll free at (888) 617-7654 or send an email to joyce@intracoastalrealty.com.  I'll be more than happy to do a Market Analysis for your

Listing and Selling real estate in the Kure Beach, Carolina Beach, Wrightsville Beach and the Wilmington, NC area.

Mortgage Interest Rates: Where Are They Headed?

Today’s $20,000 question is…Where are mortgage rates headed in the near future? Most believe the rapid rise in rates experienced over the last month will not be sustained and that they will level off into a range between 4% and 5%.

When recently asked, Zillow’s director of Mortgage Marketplace, Erin Lantz suggested:

“It is impossible to predict. However, we expect there to be a lot of volatility, probably between 4.5% to 5%.”

In Bankrate.com’s Mortgage Rate Trend Index last week, 20% of the experts said rates would go up this week, 30% said rates would go down and 50% said they would remain unchanged.

What about going forward?

Doug Duncan, chief economist for Fannie Mae recently addressed where mortgage rates may eventually end up:

“I don’t think the Fed ultimately would be troubled with a 6.5% mortgage rate.”

Why wouldn’t the Fed be troubled? They have artificially kept rates low in order to stimulate the economy. As economic indicators begin to show signs of a recovery, the stimulus will be pulled back and rates will rise.

Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac’s VP and chief economist confirms this:

“As the economy continues to improve, we expect to see continued upward movement in long-term interest rates.”

 

Buckle in!! The rollercoaster ride will probably continue.

For more information about current rates and current properties for sale in Carolina Beach, Kure Beach, Wrightsville Beach or the Wilmington, NC area, please give me a call at (910) 617-7654 or email me at: joyce@intracoastalrealty.com.